Prof G Markets Why Oil Still Runs the World — ft. Daniel Yergin
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May 8, 2026 
Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize–winning energy historian and S&P Global vice chairman, unpacks how Iran and the Strait of Hormuz shape global oil leverage. He explores ripple effects on LNG, fertilizers and supply chains. He discusses military limits, drone warfare, months of higher energy prices, and which countries stand to gain or lose.
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Iran's Leverage Is The Strait Not Production
- Iran's leverage comes less from current production and more from controlling the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of world oil normally flows.
- By attempting to turn the strait into a toll point, Iran can disrupt not only crude but petrochemicals, fertilizer, helium, and metals trade.
Hormuz Disruptions Ripple Beyond Oil
- The Gulf states have diversified exports so Hormuz disruptions now ripple into LNG, steel, petrochemicals, helium, and fertilizers globally.
- Yergin notes U.S. LNG projects can stall because they rely on steel from Abu Dhabi, showing deep supply-chain integration.
Iran Is Not Venezuela—IRGC Gives Regime Durability
- Yergin contrasts Iran with Venezuela to show differing durability of regimes and influence over oil.
- He highlights Iran's IRGC and missile buildup, noting a 2,500-mile strike capability as a strategic surprise.
