The Liz Moody Podcast

Should You Move? Have Kids? Change Careers? Science-Backed Frameworks For Every Hard Decision

May 13, 2026
Guest
Simone Stolzoff
Simone Stolzoff, journalist and author of How to Not Know, explores why our brains fear uncertainty and how to build tolerance for the unknown. He unpacks information overload, practical acceptance techniques, contingency planning, and quick tactics for big life choices. Short, science-backed frameworks help you act before you feel ready and reframe uncertainty as possibility.
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ADVICE

Prototype The Future To Reduce Guessing

  • Instead of endless research or impulsivity, get proximate to the experience you fear via experiments or prototypes to learn what it actually feels like.
  • Example: the couple proxied breakup experience by living separately for a year.
INSIGHT

Experts Often Forecast Like Darts

  • Expert forecasts are often no more accurate than random guesses, so we should treat pundit predictions skeptically.
  • Phil Tetlock's research shows even top economists and politicians are frequently wrong about future events.
ADVICE

Talk To Your Future Self In Third Person

  • Use psychological distancing (talk to yourself in third person or give friend-style advice) to reduce emotional attachment and improve decision clarity.
  • Stolzoff recommends this when you're clinging to a specific outcome to cool rumination.
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