Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Theodore Postol: Iran Already Has Nuclear Deterrent to Israeli Nuclear Strike
Mar 30, 2026
An expert explains how Iran's uranium stockpile and enrichment could already enable near-weapons capability. They discuss simple pathways to assemble gun-type nuclear devices and timelines for producing multiple weapons. Detailed analysis covers targeting strategies to maximize urban fire damage, how firestorms and radioactive fallout spread, and the grim humanitarian consequences of a nuclear exchange.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Weaponization Can Happen In Weeks Using Existing Cascades
- Converting 60% UF6 to 90% fissile metal is achievable in weeks using centrifuge cascades and small conversion workshops.
- Postol outlines centrifuge cascades, multiple parallel cascades and a closet-sized fluorination/reduction apparatus that fits in tunnels.
Uranium Gun Designs Need No Nuclear Test
- Simple Hiroshima-type gun assembly designs work reliably without nuclear testing for uranium bombs.
- Postol notes the US did not test the Hiroshima device and says uranium implosion-assembly yields ~15 kt without prior nuclear tests.
JCPOA Breakdown Enabled Hidden Enrichment Capacity
- Breaking the JCPOA removed inspection access and allowed Iran to expand hidden centrifuge production and storage.
- Postol blames the Trump withdrawal and subsequent U.S. delay in reinstatement for losing monitoring of centrifuge construction.