HousingWire Daily Will mortgage rates get ahead of oil prices?
Apr 1, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, lead mortgage analyst known for sharp commentary on rates and housing trends. He breaks down why mortgage rates are not tracking rising oil and what bond moves really mean. He separates muted hiring from mass layoffs and weighs war risks and oil routes on yields. He also looks at purchase applications and what could steer homebuying demand.
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Bond Market Can Lead Oil Price Moves
- The 10-year Treasury yield can move independently of oil prices when the bond market prices in conflict de-escalation or recession expectations.
- Logan Mohtashami notes oil stayed above $100 while the 10-year fell to ~4.30%, showing bonds can 'get ahead' of geopolitics.
Avoid Equating Lower Yields With Recession
- Don’t assume a falling 10-year yield automatically signals a recession for mortgage planning or market calls.
- Logan warns to watch levels (e.g., sub 3.80% is different) and monitor whether yields decline due to sentiment, not fundamentals.
Logan's Annual April Fools Recession Prank
- Logan ran an annual April Fools blog post claiming a recession, then revealed it as a joke and scolded readers who shared without reading.
- He says the prank repeatedly fooled people, illustrating persistent doom narratives in media.