Crypto Banter I Studied 50 Years of War Data, Here’s The Hidden Playbook
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Mar 13, 2026 A data-driven four-stage framework for how major wars shape markets is laid out in short, clear segments. Oil’s trendline and safe-haven flows get singled out as the key signals to watch. Historical war case studies — from the Gulf War to 2003 Iraq and COVID market reactions — are used to show recurring market patterns and timing rules for positioning.
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Markets Price Effects Not Headlines
- Markets react to the economic effects of wars, not the headlines or missiles.
- Ran Neuner emphasizes inflation, oil, liquidity, and growth uncertainty as the actual drivers investors price in.
Avoid Selling During Headline Shock
- Do not sell into the headline shock; history shows the attack often marks the bottom.
- Ran Neuner shows multiple conflicts where the market dipped on panic (phase two) then reversed within days, making it a buying window.
1990 Kuwait Invasion Showed Rapid Reversal
- Iraq invaded Kuwait in Aug 1990 and the Dow fell 6.7% that week while oil jumped from $17 to $41 in two months.
- Operation Desert Storm (Jan 17, 1991) saw oil crash 33% the same day and the S&P jump 3.7%, leading to a 30% S&P gain by year-end.