ChinaTalk EMERGENCY POD: H20s to China + 15% with Chris Miller and Lennart
52 snips
Aug 13, 2025 
Chris Miller, author of Chip War, and Lennart Heim, a RAND analyst, dive into the complexities of AI chip sales to China. They discuss the tradeoffs and strategic implications of selling advanced technology amidst rising tensions. The conversation highlights why China seems uninterested in the H20 chips and emphasizes the importance of high-bandwidth memory and semiconductor equipment in this geopolitical chess game. The duo explores the intricate relationship between technology policy and international relations, shedding light on the future of U.S.-China tech dynamics.
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Trump's 15% Deal And 'Obsolete' Line
- Jordan reads President Trump's remarks describing the H20 as 'obsolete' and recounting his negotiation for a 15% revenue share.
- The president framed the deal as a national concession and compared it to selling downgraded fighter jets.
Cap Export Volumes, Not Only Specs
- Limit the quantity of exports rather than just the spec threshold to constrain Chinese capacity growth.
- Heim explicitly asks policymakers to reduce export volumes as the key lever.
Prioritize Controls On Chipmaking Tools
- Keep export controls targeted at upstream tools like lithography rather than only on GPUs.
- Leonard and Chris recommend prioritizing restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment over selling accelerators.
