Michael Oliver: “Bitcoin Is Broken” — Why Silver, Gold & Commodities Aren’t Done

Feb 6, 2026

Michael Oliver, proprietor of Momentum Structural Analysis and veteran momentum analyst, explains his long-term momentum approach. He discusses why silver’s sharp pullback is a midpoint stumble and why miners remain undervalued. He calls Bitcoin a broken asset, outlines a commodity breakout and a possible second leg higher, and highlights what to watch as U.S. equities approach a late-cycle top.

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INSIGHT

Momentum Leads Price

Michael Oliver uses long-term momentum plotted as monthly bars against multi-year moving averages to detect trend shifts before price confirms them.
Momentum structure often breaks first and signals major trend changes prior to price "smacking you in the face."

INSIGHT

Spread Breakouts Signal Big Moves

Silver's November breakout versus gold closed a decade-wide ceiling on the spread chart and signaled a major regime change according to Oliver.
A breakout over such a multi-year base typically leads to an extended surge, not an immediate top two months later.

ADVICE

Don’t Sell Into Midpoint Stumbles

Treat the sharp recent pullback in silver as a midpoint stumble, not a trend reversal, and expect stability then resumption of the rally.
Avoid exiting an investment-grade position because re-entry timing is uncertain and the upside likely far exceeds the drop.</note_md

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Silver sold off hard, but veteran momentum analyst Michael Oliver says the pullback is a “very sharp, but non-event” and a classic “midpoint stumble,” we've not reached the top.

In this interview with Trey Reik, Oliver explains his Momentum Structural Analysis approach and why major trend shifts often show up first in momentum structure, before price “smacks you in the face.” He argues that silver’s breakout versus gold and the broader relative-performance breakouts (metals and miners vs equities) suggest the move is still early, adding: “You don’t break out over a 10-year wide base and expect to see the top in two months.” Oliver also contrasts this with Bitcoin, calling it a “broken asset” after key long-term momentum structure failed.

Finally, he shares why commodities may be entering a “second leg” higher, why miners remain historically undervalued relative to gold, and what he’s watching as U.S. equities move through a late-cycle topping process.

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