Is the Iran War Ramping Up or Winding Down – with Dan Shapiro

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Iran has taken significant hits to its leadership and infrastructure, yet the regime remains in place, continues to project power across the region, and retains the ability to disrupt global energy markets.

So where does that leave us?

In this episode, host Aviva Klompas sits down with Ambassador Daniel Shapiro to examine what this campaign has achieved, whether the United States had a viable alternative to military action, and what a realistic end state might look like from here. They discuss whether an early off-ramp was missed, why both Washington and Tehran are advancing demands that appear impossible to reconcile, and what that signals about the role of diplomacy at this stage of the conflict.

The conversation also explores the credibility of U.S. claims that its objectives can be achieved without deploying ground troops, the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s leadership, and whether the current trajectory points toward a defined outcome or a prolonged and unstable phase of confrontation.

Guest Bio:

Ambassador Daniel Shapiro is a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. He previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East from 2024 to 2025, Senior Adviser on Regional Integration in the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, and US Ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017.