Semi Doped The Great Optics-Copper Crossroads
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Mar 7, 2026 They debate the optics vs copper showdown after a surprise $4B optics buy and bold claims that 400G per lane can run over copper. They unpack supply chain, U.S. fab moves, and laser technologies versus micro‑LED active cables. They also explore reliability, telemetry-driven link fixes, and a strategic theory about why big players are pushing copper messaging.
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Why Nvidia Paid $4B For Laser Suppliers
- Nvidia's $4B investments in Lumentum and Coherent signal it wants guaranteed laser capacity, price competition, and U.S. manufacturing for optics supply.
- Austin explains Nvidia's playbook: prepayments and multiple suppliers (like HBM strategy) secure capacity and lower costs.
Judge Optics Versus Copper By Timing Not Dogma
- Evaluate optics versus copper on deployment timing and customer mixes, not absolutes.
- Austin advises zooming out to adopter S-curves and track which hyperscalers deploy which tech and when.
Geopolitics Shaped Nvidia's Optics Strategy
- Nvidia's optics moves include a geopolitical layer: investments push suppliers toward U.S. fabs and reduce China/Thailand supply risk.
- Both Lumentum and Coherent publicly referenced U.S. manufacturing expansion tied to Nvidia deals.