Payments on Fire™ Episode 274 - Looking through the Fog: Investing in Times of Great Uncertainty, with Timothy Chiodo, UBS, and Christopher Kim, Capital Group
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Sep 24, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Timothy Chiodo, a payments and fintech expert at UBS, and Christopher Kim, a savvy investor at Capital Group, dive into the current landscape of payments and investing. They dissect the enduring value of Visa and Mastercard, explore the regulatory challenges surrounding debit interchange, and analyze the promising role of stablecoins. The duo also shares insights on digital wallets’ growing dominance, the dynamics of merchant acquiring, and under-the-radar investment opportunities in fintech. A must-listen for finance enthusiasts!
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Four Pillars For Investing
- Chris uses a four-pillar investment framework: large market, durable moat, attractive unit economics, and capital allocation.
- He emphasizes long-term horizons and checking embedded expectations before paying for a stock.
Wallets Capture Incremental E‑Commerce
- Digital wallets (PayPal, Apple Pay, Shop Pay, BNPL) are gaining share of e-commerce and incremental volume.
- Shop Pay and Apple Pay are expanding TAMs into enterprise and desktop, capturing outsized growth.
Acquiring Revenue Shifts To SaaS
- US merchant acquiring is about $35B revenue today, built from $12T volume at ~28 bps net spread.
- A growing share (~1/3 today, forecast ~50% by decade end) of that revenue is migrating to vertical SaaS platforms.