Everything Energy Ukraine’s energy security and the coming winter
Oct 30, 2025
In this conversation, Talya Vatman, the IEA's Caspian and Black Sea Programme Manager, discusses Ukraine's precarious energy security as winter approaches. She shares insights from her visit to Kyiv, emphasizing the risks of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Talya highlights the human impact of power outages and the necessity of decentralized renewable sources for resilience. She also covers the challenges of maintaining energy supplies and the vital role of international support in safeguarding Ukraine's energy future.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Dispatchable Capacity Shrunk Sharply
- Ukraine's dispatchable capacity fell from ~38 GW pre-2022 to roughly 16.5 GW by September 2024.
- Repeated recent attacks have eroded restorations made over spring and summer.
Spring-Summer Recovery Window
- Talya described an energy 'ceasefire' in spring and summer that allowed repairs and recovery.
- By September Ukraine restored gas production and recovered at least 1.5 GW of generation.
Nuclear Remains Central
- Nuclear supplied roughly half of Ukraine's power, with thermal ~30% and hydro ~25%.
- Variable renewables can contribute strongly in summer but are limited in winter demand peaks.