Daily Politics from the New Statesman A three horse race in Gorton and Denton
Feb 24, 2026
Ben Walker, senior data journalist who models elections, breaks down a three-way race in Gorton and Denton. He maps the constituency split and explains how distinct Labour bases face different threats. He walks through who is standing, tactical-vote pressures, turnout effects, and a Britain Predicts photo finish that puts Labour, Greens and Reform in a near tie.
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Tale Of Two Very Different Communities
- Gorton and Denton is a tale of two very different areas divided within one constituency.
- Gorton is diverse with many students and a large Pakistani/Bangladeshi population, while Denton is smaller, predominantly white working class and lower-turnout.
Different Threats To Labour In One Seat
- The seat illustrates two distinct Labour bases being tested by different challengers.
- Asian/Muslim wards are drifting from Labour over Gaza issues while white working-class Denton is susceptible to Reform gains.
Reallocation Turns Race Into A Photo Finish
- Reallocating the Workers' Party/pro-Gaza vote changes the race dynamic from Labour vs Reform to Labour vs Green.
- Britain Predicts' final forecast puts Green 31%, Reform 30%, Labour 29% — a photo finish decided by a few hundred votes.