Prof G Markets $500M Bet On The Iran Strike — Before It Happened
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Mar 5, 2026 
Dan Primack, Axios business editor covering VC and defense tech. Jonathan Cohen, policy lead and author focused on gambling and prediction markets. They discuss massive war wagers on prediction platforms. They debate why betting on conflict is growing, legal and moral limits of markets, and a surge of VC cash into defense startups like Anduril.
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Social Utility Is The Investing vs Gambling Line
- The line between investing and gambling is thin; Jonathan Cohen defines social utility as the key distinction.
- He argues stocks provide secondary utility (capital to firms) while prediction contracts mainly serve entertainment and private profit, so they are gambling.
Small Trades Can Move Politics And News
- Prediction markets can be manipulated to shape news cycles or political outcomes because small funds can move odds and attract attention.
- Cohen warns a $15k trade on a leader's ouster could spark media and political consequences in small countries.
Markets Create Incentives For Real World Manipulation
- Prediction markets create incentives for real-world manipulation because traders profit if they cause outcomes they bet on.
- Cohen cites examples like paid dares and the risk of someone committing violence to cash in on an event contract.