The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 394. The Inflation Games: The Fed Transition & Trimmed Mean PCE, Regional Bank & Mortgage REIT Earnings, & AI-Driven Real Estate Transactions
May 1, 2026
A wide-ranging look at Fed transition risks, trimmed mean PCE as a new inflation signal, and oil price scenarios that could reshape markets. Conversations about data center and AI-driven leasing momentum in San Francisco and major transactions like Supermicro and Oracle. Reviews of CBRE earnings, mortgage REITs cautiously returning to lending, and improving regional bank credit trends.
AI Snips
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Transcript
Episode notes
CRE Stabilizing Yet Macro Uncertainty Remains
- CRE shows stabilizing pockets but macro uncertainty (Fed transition, oil, consumer) prevents broad market relaxation.
- Strength in data centers and AI-driven office (San Francisco) contrasts with cooling housing and fragile consumer confidence.
Trimmed Mean PCE Gives Cooler Inflation Signal
- Trimmed mean PCE removes largest monthly price moves and averages the middle, giving a cooler underlying inflation read than core PCE.
- For 12 months to Feb trimmed mean PCE was 2.3% vs core PCE 3.0, and six-month annualized trimmed mean hit 2.0 vs 3.4 for core.
Fed Vote Split Signals Heightened Policy Tension
- April FOMC vote was unusually split (8-4), reflecting heightened Fed division ahead of the Warsh transition.
- Powell will remain on the Board, adding political and policy tension into upcoming meetings.