Bloomberg Businessweek 29th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference Special: Day Two
May 5, 2026
Amos Hochstein, former Middle East senior advisor to President Biden and seasoned energy diplomat. He contrasts paper oil markets with looming physical shortages. He explains tanker and supply-chain disruptions, strategic storage and infrastructure shifts tied to control of key waterways. He reflects on policy choices around Iran and their timing.
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Physical Oil Shortages Diverge From Paper Prices
- Amos Hochstein highlights divergence between paper oil prices and the physical market, saying Brent on terminals doesn't match scarce physical barrels.
- He warns tankers are not moving to Asia/Europe, creating growing supply tightness despite market calm.
Geopolitics Will Rewire Oil Infrastructure And Storage
- Hochstein compares current shocks to the 1970s and COVID, predicting structural changes: bypassing Straits of Hormuz and more storage in destination countries.
- He says building redundancy and storage in Tokyo, Delhi and Singapore is feasible and inexpensive relative to the risk.
Iran Can Pace Oil Shutdowns Without Explosions
- Hochstein explains Iran can manage oil output via wartime economizing (rotating shutdowns, designed field fires) rather than catastrophic explosions.
- He warns physical shortages will deepen rapidly and hit middle- and high-income countries soon.