The Daily Brief Why is global waste trade going down?
Feb 20, 2026
They unpack why global plastic waste shipments collapsed, from China's contamination crackdown to rerouting and new rules reshaping trade. They trace rising scrap metal importance and export controls as countries try to keep low-carbon feedstock. They also survey a major ILO report on the stalled jobs transition, rising informality, youth unemployment paradox, and how demographics, debt and AI complicate job creation.
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China Was The Giant Node
- China handled over half of traded plastic waste by 2016 and drove global flows into its recycling industries.
- When China stopped accepting contaminated waste, global export routes and economics unraveled.
Regulation Broke The Old System
- Policy shocks like China’s 2018 ban and Basel 2021 amendments tightened controls and reduced contaminated plastic shipments.
- The EU's 2026 ban on exports to non‑OECD countries will further regionalize waste management.
Less Trade ≠ Better Recycling
- Falling trade volumes don't necessarily equal better recycling; OECD recycling rates barely rose in two decades.
- Reduced exports have often led to more incineration and landfilling, not higher circularity.