The Hoon: National ruling out TPM; the end of the Washington consensus; a call for more tax on the wealthiest

TLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and Aotearoa’s political economy I covered via The Kākā for paying subscribers included:

* Migration stats showing annualised net migration running at well over 100,000, creating population growth of close to 2%, which is four times the rate the Stats NZ and Infrastructure NZ assume for long term population growth; Friday’s Chat

* Finance Minister Grant Robertson saying New Zealand couldn’t afford the $220 billion of spending needed to rectify past under-investment in infrastructure and cope with population growth of 0.5% per year, but simply stated we could handle current population growth of 2% per annum; Friday’s Chat

* Robertson saying the Government would fund cyclone repairs out of $4 billion of savings and under-spend identified elsewhere, and the Government’s top priority was fiscal restraint to take any pressure off inflation and interest rates; Thursday’s Chat

* Treasury figures showing how the Government’s backsliding on its Emissions Trading Scheme has blown an $800 million hole in its Budget, which was now running $2.5 billion behind forecasts because of slower tax receipts elsewhere as the economy slows; Wednesday’s email

* Christopher Luxon ruling out National coming to any governing arrangement with Te Pāti Māori, saying it was different to the one that governed with National from 2008 to 2017 in wanting separate institutional arrangements, while National wanted “one standard of citizenship, meaning one person, one vote”; Wednesday’s Chat

* PM Chris Hipkins as good as confirming a market study into banks would be announced before the election, with my analysis of what that market study should look at; Tuesday’s email and,

* A cascade of surveys and leaks showing the health system is on the brink of collapse just as the winter arrives, and just five months before the election. Monday’s email.

What we talked about on the ‘hoon’

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night, I talked with co-host Peter Bale in Spain and special guests:

* University of Otago Foreign Relations Professor Robert Patman about the US pivot away from the the ‘old’ globalisation/free markets ‘Washington Consensus’ to a new Consensus around green industrial policy and competing with China, plus the latest on Ukraine vs Russia;

* Former Retirement Commissioner Diana Crossan talking about a letter from more than 90 wealthy New Zealanders calling for higher taxes on the wealthy;

* Tax expert Terry Baucher on the structure of our tax system, the big gaps and how it could be filled.

The Hoon’s podcast version above is produced by Simon Josey.

Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues.

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week

The Toyota Corolla of house builders - Most new homes in Aotearoa are still built as individualised and bespoke things with a multitude of building materials, standard, building techniques and forms. It feels a lot like the early days of car manufacturing, when there were thousands of builders with many more thousands of models. Then along came Henry Ford and Toyota to standardise and mass produce to drive prices down and quality up. This week on When The Facts Change I talked with Simplicity Living MD Shane Brealey about how to build the Toyota Corolla of homes for two thirds the cost of other homes.

Peering back at Piggy - I spoke with podcaster Tom Leeman for his The Hated and The Dead series about Robert Muldoon.

Chat thread of the week

I also host regular discussions on the Chat section of The Kākā for paying subscribers.

Here’s the most commented one:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe