Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality 22b – The Scientific Method, part 2
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Oct 6, 2011 Harry Potter and Draco discuss the implications of Harry's gift to a mudblood. They debate the relevance of caring about others' opinions. Harry and Draco engage in a role-playing exercise to test the blood-purist hypothesis. They discuss the decline of magic and brainstorm tests to distinguish between different theories. Harry and Draco devise a plan, leading to a rushed exit.
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Science Tests Theories By Trying To Falsify Them
- Scientists try to disprove their own theories by inventing real rival hypotheses and testing which prediction matches reality.
- Harry explains scientific thinking using the 'Potter method' role-play to expose weak arguments and force stronger alternatives.
Role-Playing Exposes Hidden Hypotheses
- Harry and Draco role-play as rival scientists and editors to practice spotting weak rejections and hidden assumptions.
- The exercise forces Draco to propose stronger alternatives and exposes missing hypotheses like 'magic fading'.
Face Unpleasant Hypotheses To Enable Action
- When a hypothesis is frightening, you must still test it rather than cling to comforting beliefs, using the Litany of Tarski to avoid bias.
- Harry urges Draco to seek the true state of the world because knowing enables action, even if the truth is bad.