Odd Lots Rob Kaplan on the Fed, AI, and How Globalization Is Happening Without the US
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Sep 12, 2025 
Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and current vice chairman of Goldman Sachs, shares fascinating insights on the Fed's path for interest rates and the macroeconomic landscape. He discusses the escalating AI race between the U.S. and China, along with the evolving dynamics of globalization that appear to be advancing without U.S. leadership. Kaplan also delves into the complexities of Federal Reserve independence amid political influences, and how these factors shape economic predictions and market responses.
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Asian Firms Question U.S. Reshoring Strategy
- Kaplan recounts conversations in Asia where firms aim to move from low-value to high-value manufacturing.
- He heard questions about U.S. reshoring choices versus solidifying North American supply chains.
Reshoring Is Happening—Unevenly And Painfully
- Some foreign manufacturers are building more capacity in the U.S., but tariffs squeeze margins and hurt small businesses.
- The reshoring trend exists but magnitude and timing remain uncertain.
Tariffs Trade Off Revenue For Slower Growth
- Tariffs raise revenue but slow growth; they work best when used to re‑onshore high value manufacturing.
- Kaplan doubts tariffs should aim to re-shore low value resources like lumber or aluminum.