Astral Codex Ten Podcast Mantic Monday 12/4/23
Dec 13, 2023
Exploring OpenAI markets and predictions, usage of betting functionality on a dating site, update of Metaculous scoring system, and discussion on predictions related to Venezuela, Argentina, and the Middle East. Also, surprising moves in the AI field and potential prediction market dating show.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Why 'Why' Markets Fail
- Prediction markets struggle with open-ended "why" questions because users add overlapping, vague options.
- Creators should use mutually exclusive options and control additions to get meaningful signals.
Design Markets With Exclusive Choices
- When creating a market, pick a few mutually exclusive answers and disable new additions.
- If reality drifts, either update the market yourself or create a new one to avoid an uninformative "other" pile.
Beware Visualization Artifacts
- Market price histories can reflect real events but embeds or visualizations may introduce artifacts.
- Check source charts carefully before interpreting gradual trends as real movement.