Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Why Bitcoin Went Sideways in 2025: ETF Flows, Gold Outperformance, and the Patience Edge

Dec 20, 2025
Brady and John explore the sluggish performance of Bitcoin in 2025, highlighting a 'crab market' and examining why public expectations are often misaligned. They dive into the roots of the HODL meme and how it underscores the need for long-term investment discipline. The discussion turns to Bitcoin's relationship with gold, ETF flows, and why patience is a key edge for investors. They also critique the push for universal stock ownership and analyze current fiscal deficits and market dynamics, bringing a mix of humor and insights throughout.
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INSIGHT

Changing Your Mind Is A Strength

  • Michael Saylor's 2013 tweet "Bitcoin's days are numbered" is now a teaching moment about changing views.
  • Willingness to update on evidence is a hallmark of smart investors, John says.
INSIGHT

CPI Surprise With Caveats

  • CPI printed cooler than expected at 2.6% but data may be distorted by the government shutdown.
  • Cooler inflation supports the path toward Fed cuts rather than a repeat of 2021–22 conditions.
INSIGHT

Deficits Improved But Remain Massive

  • A 21% drop in the deficit year-over-year is touted as success, but $1.5T remains historically large.
  • John warns deficits at 5–6% of GDP are unsustainable without recession-era conditions.
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