Wall Street Week Soft US Jobs, Swedish Defense Spending, Private Credit Woes
35 snips
Mar 13, 2026 Steven Rattner, investor and CEO of Willett Advisors, offers a compact tour of labor market weakness, the anticipatory effects of AI on hiring, and stagflation risks. He also examines private credit strains and valuation headaches. Sweden’s surprising defense surge and Europe's rearmament make an appearance.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Likely To Reduce Cuts Amid Conflicting Signals
- Fed faces a difficult tradeoff between slowing growth and inflation; rate cuts expected this year may be fewer or smaller.
- Rattner sees rate hikes unlikely and the prior expectation of two cuts may fall to one or none.
Private Credit Faces Losses From Revenue‑Based Loans
- Private credit will see pain but not a 2007–08‑style systemic collapse because leverage and engineering differ.
- Rattner warns many loans were made on ARR (revenue) rather than profitability, increasing default vulnerability.
Illiquidity Makes Private Credit Valuations Opaque
- Valuation opacity in private credit complicates risk assessment because assets aren't marked daily.
- Rattner explains investors rely on quarterly marks, financials and close company monitoring but often 'live with our old ones.'