Middle East Focus Can Turkey Stay Out of the Iran War?
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Mar 12, 2026 
Gönül Tol, a senior fellow on Turkish politics and author of Erdogan's War, offers sharp analysis of Turkey's tightrope amid the Iran war. She examines Turkey–Iran cooperation and rivalry. She outlines security risks after missile incursions, economic and energy vulnerabilities, refugee worries, Kurdish dynamics, and shifting regional defense ties.
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Turkey Keeps Iran Weak But Not Broken
- Turkey balances cooperation and competition with Iran across trade, energy, and regional influence.
- Ankara wants Iran weak enough to limit proxy projection but strong enough to secure borders and curb Kurdish cross-border threats.
De escalation Is Turkey's Top Priority
- Turkey's primary goal is de‑escalation because a prolonged Iran war threatens its economy, refugee burden, Kurdish front, and direct security.
- Ankara deployed Patriots and expects months of attacks after two ballistic missiles entered Turkish airspace.
Oil Price Shock Deepens Turkey's Economic Fragility
- Rising oil above $100 and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sharply worsen Turkey's fragile economy.
- Economists estimate each $10 rise in oil raises Turkey's current account deficit by about $7 billion, pressuring inflation pre‑election.