HousingWire Daily ICE’s Andy Walden on the spring housing market
11 snips
Mar 18, 2026 
Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE, offers data-driven perspectives on spring housing trends. He talks about improving affordability, rising refinance and recapture activity, and shifting buyer mix. He also covers regional inventory gaps, easing insurance costs in some states, and the role of climate and default servicing in future market planning.
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Refinances And Recapture Climbed Strongly
- Refinance activity and recapture have surged as rates fell into the low-6% range.
- ICE saw refinance volumes hit a 3.5-year high and recapture reach an 11-year high in Q4 as lenders retained prior customers.
First Time Buyers Are Dominating Purchases
- First-time buyers remain a larger share of recent purchase activity while many established owners remain locked in.
- Walden says entry buyers don't face 'lock-in' and improved buying power lifted activity across demographics and markets.
Midwest Moving Back Toward Normal
- Midwest affordability has recovered toward long-run averages, unlike many Sun Belt and coastal areas.
- Walden highlights markets in the Midwest including Memphis and Detroit returning to historical norms while South/West show oversupply.