Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Theodore Postol: Iran's Missiles & Drones Were Underestimated
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Mar 31, 2026 
Theodore Postol, MIT professor and former Pentagon advisor specializing in missiles and missile-defense, explains how Iranian missiles and drones were vastly underestimated. He discusses Iran’s underground launch resilience and why bunker-busters fail. He outlines how commercial tech like Starlink and Beidou boosts drone precision and how cheap drones overwhelm expensive interceptors. He also examines radar targeting and interceptor depletion.
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Civilian Satellites Enable Precision Strikes
- Commercial satellite navigation (e.g., China's Beidou) gives drones meter-level geolocation, enabling precise final homing.
- Postol notes a single crude image plus navigation data can guide a drone to within a few meters of a fixed target.
Starlink Gives Encrypted Real-Time Guidance
- Starlink transceivers provide encrypted, real-time video and command links for drones at low cost and power.
- Postol demonstrates a consumer Starlink fits on a drone, uses ~20–30W, and can't be monitored by providers because the traffic is encrypted.
Missile Accuracy Improved To Hundreds Of Meters
- Iran's ballistic missile accuracy has improved from ~1 km to several hundred meters, sharply increasing damage to urban targets.
- Postol uses hit patterns (Nevitim Air Base) to infer accuracy improvements and shows how improved precision concentrates warheads on downtown areas.