Masters in Business

Maximizing Luck: Masters in Business with Judd Kessler

42 snips
Mar 28, 2026
Judd Kessler, Wharton behavioral economist and author of Lucky by Design, studies how allocation rules shape who wins scarce things. He discusses hidden markets for tickets and reservations, practical tactics for first-come races, fairness tradeoffs like lotteries versus price, organ and donor-priority systems, and design fixes to curb bots and brokers.
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ADVICE

Settle For Silver In First Come Races

  • For first-come, first-serve races, be present at the start and plan fallbacks (settle for silver).
  • Choose less-contested slots (e.g., 4:30 instead of 7:30) to greatly improve success odds.
ANECDOTE

French Laundry Failed Attempt Taught Settling Strategy

  • Judd recounts trying for a French Laundry 7:30 reservation and losing, then seeing 4:30 still available but losing that too.
  • He argues aiming initially for less-contested times (4:30) would have secured the booking.
ADVICE

Judge Allocation Rules By Equity Efficiency And Ease

  • Evaluate market mechanisms by the three E's: equity, efficiency, and ease when designing allocations.
  • Price systems score high on ease; non-price mechanisms must balance fairness and use-value.
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