Multipolarity Samo Burja: The Three Mega-Trends That Will Define The 21st Century
Mar 23, 2023
Samo Burja, sociologist and founder of Bismarck Analysis, studies geopolitics, demographics and tech. He explains live vs dead players and how post-Cold War choices shaped global power. He discusses China–Russia synergies, limits of sanctions and trade wars, and the three megatrends: a graying planet, stagnant energy demand, and AI-driven automation.
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Live Players Shape Systemic Outcomes
- Live players are small, coordinated groups that can transform systems rather than just play them.
- Samo Burja argues these actors shaped Cold War moves and will shape whether multipolarity becomes bipolar or broader.
Post-Cold War Choices Accelerated Multipolarity
- Choices after the Cold War made unipolarity shorter than it could have been.
- Samo says delaying tougher China trade policies after 1999 enabled faster Chinese growth and accelerated multipolarity.
Act Early On Strategic Trade Decisions
- Act early on strategic trade policy if the goal is to limit a rival's rise.
- Samo suggests the West should have limited China's economic ascent in the 1990s to preserve geopolitical advantage.