Ukraine: The Latest Russia’s deadliest day & Orban ‘gross act of disloyalty’ stalls €90bn Ukraine loan
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Mar 20, 2026 
Dr Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at RUSI, offers strategic analysis of conflicts. He discusses deterrence in the Gulf and Black Sea, US tactics to impose costs on Iran, the erosion of legal norms, Chinese maritime militia drills, and how democracies should adapt to persistent geopolitical competition.
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Why Russian Spring Offensive Is Stalling
- Russian assaults are being blunted because Ukrainian strikes at depth and degraded Russian C2 and air defences disrupt logistics and staging areas.
- Dominic Nicholls cites increased Ukrainian deep strikes (50/month vs ~10) and Starlink loss harming Russian command, exposing engineers and comms hubs to attacks.
Ukraine's Homegrown Deep Strike Capability
- Ukraine has expanded long-range strikes using domestically produced missiles and strike drones to hit targets 50–250 km behind the front.
- Jacked-up attacks have targeted radars, missile launchers and logistics, reducing Russian air defence effectiveness and enabling deeper penetration.
Attrition Is Eating Russia's Reserves
- Russian tactical machine is grinding because reserves and training are consumed by attrition before troops reach front lines.
- Nicholls notes redeployments from Donbass to southwest and lack of spare forces to exploit gains or plug gaps.