TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast #689: Q3 2025 Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis
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Dec 3, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Matthew Mežinskis, a Bitcoin researcher and analyst known for his insights into monetary trends, delves into Bitcoin's power-curve growth model. He provides a fresh perspective on recent price volatility and emphasizes the importance of understanding network effects for long-term stability. Matthew contrasts Bitcoin's capped supply with gold's dynamics and shares intriguing signals linked to price rallies. The conversation also touches on macroeconomic factors, including the Fed's influence and the future of Bitcoin as both a payment system and a store of value.
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Stay Calm During Pullbacks
- Don't panic over short-term volatility and avoid obsessing over daily price moves.
- Spend time with family and maintain perspective; trading small amounts is reasonable but long-term hodling generally prevails.
Relative Risk Measured By Power Trend
- Quantile power-trend analysis shows Bitcoin is below median and only historically this low ~30% of the time.
- Matthew estimates statistical upside probability based on position relative to trend, not short-term narratives.
Tracking Days Above The 90th Percentile
- Matthew planned to track days above the 90th percentile to prepare listeners for extended runs above the trend.
- He notes the market hasn't stayed extended and the model kept him grounded during volatility.
