FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 2 Mar 2026
Mar 1, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist and commentator behind The Kook, offers crisp macro forecasts for Australia. He covers expected December-quarter GDP and which components really drive growth. He discusses per-capita GDP and living standards. He weighs the RBA's inflation versus jobs trade-offs. He previews household spending patterns and what building approvals signal for future supply.
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Economy Showing Strongest Quarter Since Pandemic
- Australia likely recorded around 0.7% GDP growth in the December quarter, lifting annual growth to about 2.3–2.4%.
- Stephen Koukoulas expects this to be the strongest quarterly result since the pandemic and to show early signs of rising productivity.
Private Demand Rising As Public Spending Eases
- The December quarter GDP will likely show private demand picking up while public sector demand cools after earlier strength.
- Koukoulas highlights exports and big mining profits as evidence that the net export sector is doing well.
Per Capita GDP Is The Real Living Standards Signal
- Per capita GDP matters because it measures individual living standards and was previously falling, explaining weak consumer sentiment.
- With population growth ~1.5% and GDP ~2.3%, per capita GDP should be around 0.8–0.9%, signaling a recovery for living standards.