AI Drives Lithium Demand; EVs Take a Back Seat | Benchmark’s Iola Hughes

Mar 20, 2026

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Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, discusses the 2026 EV and battery energy storage system (BESS) outlook.

From our perspective, this was a timely conversation. Iola recently published Benchmark’s latest outlook, forecasting overall battery demand growth of roughly 16.5% in 2026 to more than 2 terawatt-hours, following strong growth in the prior year. We wanted to dig into what is driving that forecast, where the differences are between EV and BESS demand, and how current market conditions are shaping the battery materials landscape.

Matt Fernley focuses on Benchmark’s methodology, including the distinction between battery installations and shipments, the impact of inventory build in the BESS market, and how lithium prices affect storage economics across China, the US and Europe. Rodney Hooper examines China EV demand, export pressure on western automakers, the outlook for plug-in hybrids and range extenders, and the competitive position of European OEMs. Howard Klein frames the broader discussion around geopolitics, power prices, energy security and how crises can accelerate solar and storage adoption.

We also cover:

- 2026 battery demand forecast
- EV market slowdown vs BESS growth
- Battery storage inventories and pricing
- US battery policy and domestic sourcing
- Lithium prices and energy storage economics
- Sodium-ion batteries vs LFP
- China EV exports and global competition
- LFP supply chain challenges outside China
- Tesla energy storage and Megapack sourcing
- Humanoid robots, autonomy and future battery demand

This interview should be useful for investors, battery materials developers, EV supply chain participants and anyone following lithium, LFP, battery storage, critical minerals and the future of electrification.

Chapters

(00:00) Intro
(03:26) Forecast Methodology
(08:40) BESS Inventories And Pricing
(11:50) Regional Storage Economics
(15:05) US Battery Policy
(17:21) Winter Grid Performance
(20:55) Sodium-Ion Outlook
(24:22) Bigger Storage Systems
(27:01) Plug-In Hybrid Growth
(30:30) China EV Slowdown
(34:34) China Exports And Europe
(38:32) Robotaxis And Autonomy
(40:02) LFP Supply Chain
(44:53) Humanoid Robot Demand
(47:13) Energy Crises And Storage
(49:12) Tesla And US Sourcing
(51:50) EV Recovery Outlook