Bloomberg Businessweek Trump Administration Eyes All Options to Cut Oil Prices Amid War
Mar 5, 2026
David Bush, Co-CIO at Trajan Wealth, offers market and stock analysis. Davide Scigliuzzo, Bloomberg private capital correspondent, breaks down private credit risks. Jeff Mason, White House reporter, covers Trump personnel moves. Jennifer Welsh, geoeconomics analyst, models oil-price scenarios from the Iran conflict. They discuss soaring oil shocks, geopolitical escalation paths, U.S. policy options to lower prices, and private credit and consumer signals.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Central Banks Must Differentiate Shock Duration
- Central banks should distinguish short-term energy shocks from persistent inflation when setting policy.
- Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin advised looking through temporary shocks but responding to sustained ones to guide rate decisions.
Iran War Could Send Oil Past $100
- Bloomberg Economics modeled a severe Iran war scenario where sustained regional disruptions could push oil above $100, estimating a peak near $108 a barrel.
- The key driver is prolonged disruption to facilities and Strait of Hormuz traffic, not today's short-term market bets, per Jennifer Welsh.
Duration Not Intensity Is The Market's Key Fear
- Bloomberg sees potential for prolonged fighting as both Iran and the U.S./Israel promise further waves of attacks, raising odds of continued disruption.
- Duration uncertainty, not current price level, is what could drive oil much higher.