HousingWire Daily Will rising oil prices bring us into a recession?
Apr 3, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for data-driven housing and mortgage market analysis. He digs into rising oil and why it does not automatically trigger a recession. He explores bond market signals versus oil moves. He discusses labor market strength, Fed implications for rates, and how jobs and purchase application trends shape housing demand.
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Oil Spike Is A Tax Not An Automatic Recession
- Rising oil prices act like a tax on consumers but don't automatically trigger a recession.
- Logan Mohtashami notes post-2010 economies handled oil spikes better due to stronger balance sheets and lower share of income spent on gas.
Bond Market Doubts A Full Geopolitical Shock
- The bond market and oil have recently diverged, signaling the market doubts worst‑case geopolitical outcomes.
- Logan points out oil climbed above $100 while the 10‑year yield remained relatively muted around 4.3%.
Demographics Make Weak Job Prints Less Scary
- Slower population and labor force growth changes how employment data should be interpreted.
- Logan references a Dallas Fed paper saying modest negative payrolls could persist without a rising unemployment rate due to weak labor force growth.