The Joseph Carlson Show This Monopoly Stock Keeps Getting Stronger
7 snips
Oct 15, 2025 Delve into ASML's impressive earnings and stock surge, with insights on why the company's growth strategy is a game changer. Explore the intriguing question of whether we're in an AI bubble, featuring Brad Gerstner's expert perspectives on valuations. Discover the concept of agentic commerce and its potential to transform industries. Exciting news about Waymo's London expansion and Salesforce's partnership with OpenAI rounds out the discussion, leaving listeners with a sense of what's next in tech.
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Buy The Dip When Fundamentals Hold
- Use market sell-offs driven by superficial comments as buying opportunities in high-quality companies.
- Carlson added to ASML after the July sell-off when management's wording, not fundamentals, drove the drop.
Disciplined Buybacks Signal Capital Prudence
- ASML repurchased €5.9 billion (9 million shares) and paused buybacks as price rose, showing disciplined capital allocation.
- Management balances buybacks and R&D funding, holding cash to buy future dips.
Lumpy Orders, Long-Term Predictability
- ASML's order backlog is lumpy but long-dated, giving long-term cashflow visibility despite quarter-to-quarter volatility.
- Management's wording about 2026 growth caused market overreaction previously, highlighting sensitivity to phrasing.
