On The Market Rising Unemployment Could Spill Into Real Estate (But By How Much?)
12 snips
Sep 18, 2025 The conversation dives into the current labor market's cooling trend and its implications for real estate. Analyzing recent payroll data reveals a rising jobless rate and significant revisions. There's a discussion on how this may lead to modest declines in mortgage rates, balancing inflation pressures. Practical strategies for investors are shared, focusing on local job trends, tenant retention, and refinancing opportunities. The outlook suggests a stable housing market with cautious growth, emphasizing risk management and preparation for potential openings.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Multiple Data Sources Show The Same Downtrend
- ADP and JOLTS data mirror the downward trend even if absolute numbers differ.
- Job openings fell to 7.18 million and the jobs-to-seekers ratio hit about one-to-one for the first time since 2020.
Large Revisions Reveal Weaker Jobs Growth
- BLS revised March 2024–March 2025 payrolls down by about 900,000 jobs.
- Initial unemployment claims spiked, adding evidence the labor market is weaker than previously believed.
BLS Methodology Strains Explain Revisions
- BLS response rates have fallen, forcing more extrapolation and later revisions.
- Meyer finds no evidence of intentional manipulation but warns revisions damage credibility.