The Mishal Husain Show Middle East Expert Bernard Haykel on the Three Futures for Iran After the Strikes
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Mar 6, 2026 Bernard Haykel, Princeton professor of Near Eastern Studies born in Lebanon, weighs in on Iran, Saudi Arabia and shifting regional power. He outlines how retaliation spread across the Gulf. He describes three possible futures for Iran and why he thinks the regime is likely to survive. He contrasts Saudi and Israeli aims and explains Mohammad bin Salman’s calculus and regional rivalry.
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Weapon Mix Shaped Iran's Retaliation Targets
- Haykel explains Iran used short-range missiles and drones in retaliation because longer-range ballistic missiles had been degraded in earlier strikes.
- That technical constraint drives the pattern of attacks on Gulf states like the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Regional Split Between Status Quo And Revisionists
- Haykel frames the region as split between status-quo states (like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan) and revisionist powers (Iran and the Israeli right wing).
- He argues both sides seek to redraw regional order, which explains why Israel might target Iran to force systemic change.
Three Possible Futures For Iran
- Bernard Haykel outlines three outcomes for Iran: regime survival and hardening, a Venezuela-like reform, or collapse into chaos and civil war.
- He warns a Libya-style breakup would be catastrophic because Iran is large, multiethnic, and resource-rich, risking regional spillover.