HousingWire Daily What the jobs report means for mortgage rates
Apr 6, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst who tracks housing and mortgage market data, breaks down the latest jobs report and its ripple effects. He discusses wage growth targets, how labor metrics shape the 10-year and mortgage-rate floor, and why mortgage spreads and purchase-app trends matter. He also covers global shocks like oil and conflict and what he watches over the weekend.
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Mad Max Moment To Frame A Jobs Friday
- Logan joked about political posts and referenced Mad Max to illustrate the surreal environment around the jobs report day.
- He used that cultural reference to segue into reading the jobs numbers and wage growth context.
Wage Growth Is The Fed's Key To Declaring Victory
- Wage growth falling to about 3.5% signals the Fed is close to its target and could 'declare victory' once wages hit ~3%.
- Logan Mohtashami ties Fed inflation strategy to wage growth dropping to ~3% plus 1% productivity to reach 2% inflation.
Low Jobless Claims Keep Rates Stubbornly High
- Low jobless claims keep policy in neutral and make it hard for 10-year yields and mortgage rates to fall below certain levels.
- Logan says neutral policy (~4% 10-year) implies mortgage rates likely won't drop under ~5.75% without recession or policy change.