Market Maker AI Boom or Bubble? Plus the US Government Reopens After Record Shutdown
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Nov 14, 2025 The hosts dive into the aftermath of the US government shutdown, examining its impacts on markets and sectors. They discuss a sharp drop in oil prices due to anticipated supply increases from Saudi Arabia. The conversation shifts to whether the AI boom is a sustainable market or a bubble, referencing Goldman Sachs' insights on valuation discrepancies. Diving deeper, they analyze the infrastructure demand for AI and technical limits of current AI models, raising questions about the future of this rapidly evolving sector.
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Shutdown Ended, Risk Kicked Down The Road
- The government shutdown ended quickly but likely only delayed the problem until January 30th. Markets rallied briefly while longer-term volatility and fiscal risk remain elevated.
- Short-term yields and Fed rate-cut odds became more uncertain because missing economic data leaves the Fed "driving in the fog."
Food Stamp Pause Hits Consumer Spending
- SNAP disruptions hit 40 million low-income Americans and reduce discretionary spending ahead of Thanksgiving. That creates knock-on weakness for discount retailers and consumer-facing firms.
- The Thanksgiving timing likely pressured politicians to resolve the shutdown quickly to avoid a retail and travel backlash.
On-The-Ground Travel Was Surprisingly Smooth
- Piers flew into JFK during the shutdown and experienced minimal queues and no major travel chaos. That contradicted dire airline warnings about Thanksgiving disruption.
- His on-the-ground experience suggests some shutdown narratives may have been overhyped.