Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast Midyear Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 with CBRE's Henry Chin
Aug 19, 2025
Henry Chin, CBRE's Head of Investor Thought Leadership and Asia Pacific Research, shares insights on the 2025 housing market. He highlights the impact of tariffs and U.S. policy on global markets while analyzing GDP changes and interest rates. The discussion also dives into cap rates, predicting a positive investment outlook amidst stabilizing treasury yields. Chin examines recovery trends in commercial real estate, particularly in major cities, and explores emerging opportunities in sectors like food, beverage, and industrial storage.
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Finance Is Improving Despite Higher Yields
- CBRE expects the 10-year Treasury to stay around 4–4.5%, keeping loan rates elevated and slowing capital recovery.
- Nevertheless, bank lending has picked up, margins narrowed, LTVs rose, and alternative lenders increased market share.
Cap Rates Have Peaked; Values Should Rise
- Cap rates are highly correlated with the 10-year Treasury and have repriced up but likely peaked.
- With occupier demand recovering, CBRE expects mild cap-rate compression and rising property values ahead.
Don't Buy At Peak Low Caps
- Avoid buying at extreme low caps because values have already repriced and leave little upside.
- Target markets where cap rates exceed 10-year yields and value upside exists through improvement.