The Gist Tyler Goodspeed: Why "Pattern-Seeking Mammals" Blame Bankers Instead of Locusts
Apr 1, 2026
Tyler Goodspeed, economist and former White House CEA chair now at ExxonMobil and author of Recession, argues recessions come from random shocks, not moral punishments for booms. He discusses pattern-seeking fallacies, historical shock examples from locusts to oil, how shocks spread across sectors, and what policy should and should not do in downturns.
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Railroad Overbuilding Story Debunked By Long Run Data
- 1870s recession narratives blamed overbuilding of railroads but the data show railroad mileage tracked a smooth long-run S-curve.
- Goodspeed cites a railroad later completed and now owned by Berkshire Hathaway as counterevidence.
Locust Plagues Were Real Economic Shocks
- Locust plagues repeatedly amplified agricultural distress and banking failures in U.S. history, contributing to recessions.
- Goodspeed maps farm distress from the 1931 drought and locust plague onto banking distress to show the link.
Dot Com Bust Was Not The Main Cause Of 2001
- The 2001 recession often labeled 'dot-com' was actually one of multiple shocks and the least important; 9/11 was the proximate cause.
- Goodspeed lists energy supply shifts and China's trade status as other concurrent shocks.
