When will a U.S. attack on Iran happen? Amos Harel on Israel's war jitters

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Feb 2, 2026

Amos Harel, senior defense analyst at Haaretz known for Israeli military and security analysis, breaks down U.S. naval moves near Iran and whether strikes could topple Tehran. He discusses Trump’s shift toward pressuring Iran into nuclear limits. He also assesses Israel’s missile concerns and the challenges in Gaza reconstruction as Rafah reopens.

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INSIGHT

U.S. Focus Shifting Toward A Nuclear Deal

Trump appears to prefer squeezing Iran into a nuclear deal rather than toppling the regime by force.
Amos Harel says military strikes alone rarely force a regime to step down and Iran is too large and resilient for simple air campaigns.

INSIGHT

Regime Change By Airstrikes Is Unrealistic

Toppling Iran from the outside with airstrikes is unlikely based on historical precedents.
Harel notes Kosovo is a rare exception and that America's resources and stamina are limited across multiple global fronts.

INSIGHT

Buildup Limits Options, Not Certainty

Massive U.S. military buildup narrows Trump's maneuvering room but doesn't mean an attack is decided.
Harel warns regional actors differ and decisions remain complex and uncertain.

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With U.S. warships in place positioned around Iran, Israelis are bracing for the regime-toppling attack that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened against Tehran and the government that cracked down so brutally on protesters last month. In response, Iranian leaders warned they would “hit the heart of Tel Aviv” in retaliation to any American offensive.

However, noted Haaretz senior defense analyst Amos Harel, speaking on the Haaretz Podcast, it seems that Trump “has lost a little bit of his appetite for destruction” in recent days, angling to push a weakened Iran to the negotiating table.

Not only is Trump encouraging a diplomatic solution, Harel said, but “when we talk about negotiations, then there's a difference between what was on the table about a month ago, which was an American demand for more or less destroying the regime, or for the regime to step down and for the democracy to be installed in Iran. Now we're talking about something completely different” – a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities instead.

“What the president is trying to do is to force the Iranians to agree to major concessions regarding their nuclear project. But it doesn't solve the number one issue for most Iranians: getting rid of the regime.” Harel said.

Will the Iranian leadership take the deal? Judging from their statements, Harel said, “they are in panic.”

On the podcast, Harel also assesses the situation in Gaza as the U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal enters its second phase, which took a step forward this week with the opening of the Rafah crossing. The real test of the deal, however, depends on whether the international coalition Trump has built is enough to pressure Hamas to lay down its arms.

If Hamas’s military capabilities “aren’t dismantled,” Harel said, “it will be hard to proceed.”

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