The Passive Income MD Podcast #308 Where We Are in the Real Estate Cycle (And What It Means for Your Next Move)
Mar 23, 2026
A clear tour of where the real estate cycle stands and how rising interest rates reshaped deals. Discussion of cap rates, valuation reset, and why current underwriting is more conservative. Examination of refinancing stress, slower transaction volume, and growing distressed opportunities. Practical pointers on deal selection, debt structure, and focusing on income-based underwriting.
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Lunch Lesson About Market Signals
- Peter Kim had lunch with a longtime Newport Beach apartment investor who said people missed the market signal because they watched headlines.
- That investor taught Peter the gap between mood and data is where the best opportunities live, illustrating cycle awareness.
2022 Rate Shock Reshaped Deals
- The 2022 rate shock came from the Fed raising rates ~5 percentage points over 16–17 months, one of the fastest hikes in decades.
- That speed turned cheap short-term variable loans into expensive liabilities, instantly raising payments and refinancing risk.
My Portfolio Has Winners And Losers
- Peter Kim shares his own mixed track record: decade-plus investing with life-changing wins and some deals that underperformed or lost money.
- He frames 'vintage risk' as the year you invest, noting 2021 entrants faced aggressive assumptions that later failed.