Macro Voices MacroVoices #328 Dr. Anas Alhajji: There Is No Escaping The Coming Energy Crisis
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Jun 16, 2022 AI Snips
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Production Increases Often Stay Domestic
- Reported OPEC+ quota increases don't translate directly into exports because much of extra production meets domestic summer power demand.
- Alhajji notes only about 1.6 million b/d of effective spare capacity remains that can be brought online within 90 days.
OPEC+ No Longer Masks Underproduction
- OPEC+ members stopped routinely compensating for others' shortfalls — a structural change that reduces global spare capacity.
- Alhajji calls this a major market-structure shift ignored by media, meaning quotas matter less than real output.
Europe Is Vulnerable To Russian Gas Leverage
- Europe is a political football between Russia and the West and cannot endure a prolonged gas cutoff.
- Alhajji warns Russia can survive years on reserves while Europe would struggle through a single winter without Russian gas.