Fabio Bassi, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy, delve into the current economic landscape. They discuss the enduring uncertainties shaping the market, including trade tensions and fiscal policies. The impact of rising U.S. tariffs on global growth and inflation is analyzed, alongside the resilience of corporate markets. Additionally, they explore the outlook for emerging markets amid geopolitical risks and the stabilization of oil prices, highlighting investor opportunities and challenges for the second half of 2025.
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insights INSIGHT
Debt Growth Increases Term Premium
Rising U.S. debt and reduced treasury ownership by foreign investors will raise term premiums.
This necessitates a higher long-term yield and steeper yield curve to attract new buyers.
insights INSIGHT
Central Bank Rate Outlook
Fed rate cuts are expected to begin in December 2025 with gradual easing.
European and Japanese central banks show varied easing and tightening, affecting global rates differently.
insights INSIGHT
Bearish U.S. Dollar Outlook
U.S. dollar is expected to weaken broadly due to moderating U.S. data and stronger fiscal policies abroad.
Certain currencies like the euro, Scandi, and Swiss franc show potential strength based on fiscal support and rate sensitivity.
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Will uncertainty continue to shape business cycle dynamics? How might trade tensions, fiscal policy and geopolitical risks play out? And will there be lasting damage to markets and the economy? Join J.P. Morgan Research analysts as they explore the outlook for the second half of 2025.
In this episode, we hear from:
Bruce Kasman, chief global economist
Bhupinder Singh, U.S. equity strategist and head of Thematic Research
Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy
Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy
Natasha Kaneva, global head of Commodities Research
Stephen Dulake, co-head of Fundamental Research
Jonathan Goulden, head of EM Fixed Income Strategy
Fabio Bassi, head of Cross-Asset Strategy
This episode was recorded between June 23 and June 26, 2024.
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