HousingWire Daily How rising oil prices affect mortgage rates
23 snips
Mar 10, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst who tracks mortgage and housing market trends, discusses how rising oil prices interact with interest rates and bond yields. Multiple short takes cover inflationary versus recessionary scenarios, why markets are stuck between signals, technical thresholds like the 10-year yield, and how geopolitics can outweigh routine economic data.
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Bond Market Stuck Between Inflation And Recession Signals
- The 10-year yield is stuck around 4.13 because markets are split between inflationary and recessionary responses to rising oil.
- Logan Mohtashami explains one side expects higher yields from inflation while the other expects demand destruction and a recession, so bonds sit in no-man's-land.
Oil Shock Creates Conflicting Macroeconomic Forces
- Escalating oil raises both inflationary pressures and the risk of demand-driven recession, creating opposing forces on yields.
- Logan notes higher fuel, diesel, food and airline costs could be inflationary short-term but also squeeze consumers into reducing demand and causing layoffs.
Neutral Bonds Reflect Hope For Quick Resolution
- The bond market's neutrality reflects expectations that the oil shock may be short-lived and that policy or supply responses will arrive.
- Logan expects interventions (G7, Jones Act moves) could mitigate the shock before long, keeping yields muted.