Right now, a litre of petrol costs around 150p. Of that, 52.95p is fixed fuel duty and around 25p is VAT sojust over half the pump price is tax. The remaining cost is the oil itself, plus refining, distribution, and retail margins. If oil rises from $110 to $200 a barrel, which is an 82% increase, the most likely pump price is around 192p per litre, and it could hit 221p in a worst-case scenario. That could be a devastating hit to the cost of living when UK families are already struggling.
But let's be clear, this oil price crisis is not being caused by UK tax policy. Fuel duty and VAT are not the drivers of this price rise; the disruption to global oil markets is. But that means the government has a real choice because it could cut fuel duty, as other countries have already done, to stabilise prices and protect people. A cut from 53p to 30p per litre could make a material difference. On top of that, it could also look at rationing, speed limits, or other demand-reduction measures used elsewhere in the world.
The choices here are political. The question is whether the government will act.