The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing Turning Expiring Options Into Venture Exposure [Vested’s Dave Thornton] | #597
Sep 12, 2025
Dave Thornton, Co-founder and Chief Customer Officer of Vested, dives into the intricacies of startup stock options, revealing that a staggering $600 billion in equity goes unclaimed. He explains how Vested empowers employees by offering funding to exercise expiring options. Thornton introduces 'Vestimate', a groundbreaking tool to track equity value and highlights trends in IPOs and venture capital exposure. Plus, he discusses the vital shift towards corporate partnerships to enhance stock option liquidity, making it easier for employees to benefit from their equity.
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Concentrate On Top-Quartile Venture Names
- Focus selection on the top 10–20% of VC-backed companies to scale prudently and increase expected growth.
- Use a predictive model and proprietary data to narrow thousands to a few thousand investable names.
Employee Behavior Is Predictive Data
- Vested observes employee behavior signals like counter-offers, early exercising, or forfeiture intentions for predictive power.
- These user interactions form a mosaic that meaningfully informs company-by-company prospects.
Use Noisy Filings To Track Revenue Momentum
- State tax and labor filings give noisy but consistently biased revenue estimates that reveal growth trajectories.
- Tracking directional revisions yields useful signals similar to earnings-revision screens in public markets.