Here's Why Here's Why the Iran War Could Hinge on Missile Math
Mar 13, 2026
Becca Wasser, defense research lead at Bloomberg Economics, studies military capabilities and munition stocks. She breaks down Iran's missile and drone inventories. She compares US and allies’ offensive and air-defense stocks. She discusses changes in attack tempo and how political will may shape how long the conflict continues.
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Scale And Variety Of Iran's Missile Stockpile
- Iran entered the conflict with roughly 2,000 to 3,000 ballistic missiles and fired at least 500 during the initial phase.
- Missiles span short, medium and some long ranges, and the U.S. is targeting launchers to reduce Iran's ability to actually fire remaining weapons.
Drones Are Iran's Cheap Mass Option
- Iran has launched over 3,000 drones at Gulf states and uses them as a cheaper, quickly produced alternative to missiles.
- Drones cost roughly $20,000 to $50,000 and have been used to inflict economic and psychological damage on Gulf economies.
From Overwhelming Salvos To Attritional Attacks
- Iran's attack tempo fell about 83% from the opening salvoes as initial large attacks aimed to overwhelm defenses and extract costs.
- The campaign shifted to an attritional approach: smaller, daily strikes focused on critical infrastructure and radars to impose steady costs.