Bloomberg Surveillance Iran War Seen Causing Prolonged Pain on Energy Prices
Mar 20, 2026
Mike McGlone, Bloomberg commodities strategist focused on oil and gold. Cole Smead, value-oriented equity manager targeting cyclicals. Karen Manna, fixed-income strategist specializing in credit and yield. Rebecca Walser, wealth manager focused on commodities and precious metals. They discuss how the Iran war shocks energy markets, strategic reserve responses, gold volatility, cyclical vs tech positioning, and credit and yield implications.
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Oil Spike Seen As Transitory Despite High Front Month Prices
- Crude oil’s early 2026 peak near $120 will be seen as a shock comparable to past spikes, but futures show a forward decline into year-end with December around $78.
- Mike McGlone cites backwardation across contracts and US net-exporter status as reasons markets expect prices to ease despite near-term turmoil.
Use Reserves Only As Temporary Relief
- Treat strategic reserve releases as a Band-Aid that temporarily eases prices but signals deeper action to neutralize Iran's offensive capability.
- Mike warns markets are pricing a longer campaign to eliminate threats in the Gulf rather than a quick fix.
Prolonged Conflict Raises Energy Returns While Investors Lag
- The Iran conflict has shifted from expectations of a surgical strike to a prolonged engagement, driving sustained higher returns for energy producers.
- Cole Smead notes spot Brent trades at extreme local levels (he cited $170 in Dubai) while many investors remain underweight energy assets.