GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave

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Aug 20, 2025

Louis Vincent-Gave, the founding partner and CEO of Gavical, delivers a candid analysis of a fraying global order. He discusses the impact of rising tariffs and energy fragility on the economy, warning that many investors fail to see the shifting landscape. Louis underscores the crucial need for portfolio adjustments amidst macroeconomic changes, highlighting the potential for capital shifts to emerging markets. He also explores the implications of AI euphoria driving market sentiment and critiques the unsustainable nature of U.S. government debt.

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ADVICE

Hedge EM Longs Against Energy Spikes

Buy protection against an inflationary energy spike that would hurt portfolios.
Position for a weaker dollar, steeper yield curve, and emerging-markets upside while hedging energy risk.

INSIGHT

September Fed Cut Likely Barring Upside CPI

Louis expects a Fed cut in September unless CPI surprises to the upside.
The size (25bp vs 50bp) will depend on data between now and then.

INSIGHT

Policy Tilt Outweighs Fed Personnel

Who leads the Fed matters less than the policy tilt toward easier money and a weaker dollar.
That tilt favors financials, EM, and a rotation from growth to value over time.

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Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave

03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data

09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?

11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?

16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?

20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets

25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?

26:58 - Powell - in or out?

31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar

38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution

43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots

46:55 - We started an equity bull market in China - but one is involved

55:49 - The impact of tariffs on global macro

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